Why Nigeria’s banks may be at risk-Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings, has disclosed that Nigerian banks’ credit profiles face severe risks from the oil price slump and operating environment disruption due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The rating agency attributed the lenders’ asset quality deterioration due to high exposures to the oil and gas sector as the biggest threat to ratings.

It noted that the nation’s operating environment risks have been accentuating when oil prices fall, especially when Nigeria crude oil exports represent 95per cent of the country’s export revenue and strongly influence the broader economy.

According to the globally reputed rating agency, falling oil revenue may also lead to further currency devaluation, noting further that the slump in oil prices raises the risk of a recession.

In addition, it stated that operating environment risks are compounded by economic and financial market disruption amid measures to counter the pandemic, putting pressure on all borrowers.

The agency clarified: “Forbearance measures announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will provide some relief to businesses and households and help the flow of credit into the economy.

This will support reported asset quality metrics in the short term (the average Stage 3 loans ratio for Fitch-rated banks was 5.7per cent at end-2019) but the asset quality could deteriorate significantly depending on the duration and severity of the oil price shock and coronavirus turmoil.

It would be recalled that Fitch recently downgraded three Nigerian banks’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to ‘B’ from ‘B+’ and placed all 10 Nigerian banks’ viability ratings and IDRs on Rating Watch Negative, reflecting its expectation that banks will face material pressures from the weaker operating environment in the coming months The agency stated:

The resilience of banks’ asset quality, profitability and capital.