CBN’s Delayed Guidance Linked to Naira’s Sharp decline- Afrinvest Report
The report said the governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso failed to provide clear communication to the market in his first 60 days in office, forcing the FX market to capitulate to speculative activities.
It insisted that the year 2023 would go down in history as one of Nigeria’s most turbulent years on the exchange rate front.
“On June 14, the interim CBN leadership announced the collapse of all FX segments into the I&E window and re-introduced the willing buyer, and willing seller model, among others. In its basic terms, this announcement implies the change in the FX management system to a crawling peg from managed float,” the report said.
It further disclosed that on the back of this development, the CBN official FX rate fell 29.0 per cent on June 14 to N660.04/$, thereby narrowing the differential between the parallel market and the official rate to N92.96 from N283.33 the prior day.
According to the report, by the end of June 2023, the differential between the official and parallel market rate has diminished to N2.75, a level last seen in the pre-COVID period.
The report recommended the effective execution of fiscal reforms that include solving the problems of insecurity, poor infrastructure, and an unfriendly business environment, stating that a weak legal system remained the only foundation upon which the CBN could achieve a lasting solution to the recurring FX crises.
On banks’ performance, the report said banks gained N2.6 trillion from FX trading and revaluation owing to favourable net FX positions.
Speaking at the event, the managing director of Afrinvest Group, Mr. Ike Chioke, discussed the inception of the banking sector report in 2005, following the first recapitalisation programme.
“Our report aims to highlight the dynamics of the Nigerian banking sector. Investors should exercise caution and thoroughly evaluate opportunities before investing in the current recapitalisation exercise,” he advised.
Chioke acknowledged the challenging macroeconomic environment but underscored the importance of data-driven economic management, stating that despite the potential national strike, the data is available to run the economy effectively.
On recapitalisation, the report said the Nigerian banking sector had witnessed several recapitalisation episodes in a bid to shore up the minimum capital required to compete locally and globally.
It said the most recent round of recapitalisation was targeted at strengthening the financial system and aiding the government’s $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The report said efforts to reform a banking system, whether through financial liberalisation, recapitalisation, restructuring, enhanced regulation or technological innovations, are understood to have some positive bearing on broad economic progress.
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