Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Forecast to $58 on Recession Fears, OPEC+ Supply Surge
Samuel Mobolaji
Goldman Sachs has further slashed its oil price forecasts, citing growing recession risks, subdued global demand, and rising output from OPEC+ producers. The investment bank now expects Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in 2026—well below its previous projection—signalling deepening concerns over the global economic outlook and energy market imbalances.
In its latest research note dated April 6, Goldman cut its 2026 forecast for Brent by $4 and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $55 per barrel. Just two days prior, the bank had already revised its 2025 outlook, slashing Brent by 5.5 per cent and WTI by 4.3 per cent after OPEC+ announced a production ramp-up and former President Trump rolled out fresh tariffs.
Analysts at Goldman also halved their 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from an earlier estimate of 600,000 bpd, attributing the cut to weakening economic conditions and lower-than-expected consumption, particularly in industrialised economies.
The bank raised its recession odds to 45 per cent over the next 12 months—up from 35 per cent—pointing to tightened financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty, all of which are expected to weigh heavily on investment and energy demand.
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Goldman, however, noted a potential upside for oil prices if the U.S. administration reverses the newly imposed tariffs and delivers more market-friendly policy signals. “Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” the analysts stated.
The continued downgrade reflects a challenging macroeconomic environment that could force energy players to reassess capital expenditure and project timelines in the face of slower demand and geopolitical headwinds.
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