Nigerian Crude Output Down 18.7% in First Four Months of 2025

Samuel Mobolaji

Nigeria produced 200.08 million barrels of crude oil between January and April 2025, falling short of its projected target of 247.2 million barrels, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

The shortfall represents an 18.7 per cent production deficit and raises fresh concerns about the viability of the country’s revenue outlook.

Crude oil remains Nigeria’s dominant source of foreign exchange and a key driver of export earnings, making the economy highly vulnerable to fluctuations in output and global prices. The government has introduced reforms to enhance tax administration and unify exchange rates, aiming to grow federal revenue from N6.8 trillion in 2023 to N12.4 trillion in 2024.

However, the World Bank has warned that the 2025 budget is based on “overly ambitious revenue assumptions.” These concerns have deepened as oil prices have declined sharply since April amid renewed fears of slowing global growth after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.

The estimated 46.4 million barrel production gap in the first four months of 2025 presents a significant risk to fiscal projections, potentially widening the budget deficit. As global oil prices remain unstable and output challenges persist, the government faces mounting pressure to stabilise production and reduce dependence on crude oil revenues.