AfDB Lowers Africa’s 2025 Growth Outlook Over Global Tariff Tensions
Samuel Mobolaji
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has revised downward its 2025 economic growth forecast for Africa, citing mounting uncertainties triggered by a new wave of global trade tariffs, particularly those imposed by the United States.
In its 2024 African Economic Outlook report released during the Bank’s Annual Meetings in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, the AfDB projected the continent’s economic growth to accelerate to 3.9 per cent this year, up from 3.3 per cent in 2024. However, the forecast represents a 0.2 percentage point reduction from the Bank’s earlier estimate due to the economic fallout from fresh trade tensions.
The AfDB, with a capital base of $318 billion and comprising all 54 African countries, also cut its 2026 growth projection to 4.0 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points from previous forecasts, as trade disruptions continue to cloud global demand and investment flows.
“Since January 2025, the world has experienced additional shocks, exacerbating an already complex global macroeconomic landscape,” the Bank noted, referencing the barrage of tariffs introduced by the U.S. and retaliatory levies by its trading partners.
The resulting volatility, it said, is dampening global trade prospects, slowing Africa’s exports and triggering declines in commodity prices and financial asset values. Although the United States accounts for only about 5 per cent of Africa’s total trade, the ripple effects of the tariff war are already evident in the continent’s macroeconomic environment.
The Bank warned that the full impact of the tariffs would depend on the outcome of the U.S. administration’s temporary 90-day pause on the controversial “Liberation Day” tariffs, with no clear resolution yet in sight.
Despite these headwinds, the AfDB expressed optimism that growth across Africa will be bolstered by strong performances in over 21 countries, each projected to grow by more than 5 per cent in 2025. Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal are expected to lead the pack with growth rates exceeding 7 per cent.
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