Analysts See Inflation Decline in August on Stable Naira, Food Supply
Samuel Mobolaji
As the headline inflation eases to 21.88 per cent in July from 22.22 per cent in June, analysts expect Nigeria’s inflation rate to extend its downward trajectory into August, driven by naira stability, seasonal food supply, and easing energy costs.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that core inflation fell to 21.33 per cent in July, even as food inflation edged higher to 22.74 per cent from 21.97 per cent. Analysts, however, believe the onset of the green harvest, which peaks this month, will boost supplies and ease food price pressures.
Cordros Research noted that the relative stability of the naira is helping to anchor import costs and inflation expectations, while a more moderate pace of energy price increases compared to last year has created room for further declines in core inflation.
Similarly, analysts at Commercio Partners observed that inflation “appears to be entering a short-term stabilisation phase, supported by a relatively stable exchange rate, lower petrol prices, and the statistical effect of a high base from 2024.”
They added that tighter monetary policy and improved foreign exchange liquidity are beginning to slow month-on-month inflation.
Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the economy is showing signs of gradual stability supported by exchange rate calm, improved investor confidence, and the impact of import duty waivers on staples such as rice, maize, and sorghum.
He, however, cautioned that pressures remain, as month-on-month inflation rose from 1.68 per cent in June to 1.99 per cent in July, while food inflation climbed further. He warned that structural bottlenecks such as high logistics costs, insecurity, port inefficiencies, and climate risks continue to fuel vulnerabilities.
Yusuf stressed the need for a coordinated mix of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to consolidate recent gains, saying conventional tools alone will be insufficient to sustain stability.
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