"Why Nigeria's economy can't afford another lockdown'

Despite the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in some states across the country, industry experts have said due to the current state of Nigeria’s economy that another lockdown cannot be perceived by the federal and state governments.

Experts who spoke with LAGOS BUSINESS NEWS submitted that Nigeria economy will worsen if total lockdown is initiated, rather the federal government should see into a more proactive and precautionary way of managing the pandemic.

It was also ascertained that restriction on economic activities will be putting the Nigerians hope of getting out of recession in the first quarters of 2021 at stake.

Checks by our correspondent over the weekend, however, showed that Nigeria has a total confirmed COVID19 cases of 77,933 (seven-seven thousand, nine hundred and thirty-three) patients discharged 67,784 (sixty-seven thousand, seven hundred and eighty-four) patients and 1,218 (One thousand, two hundred and eighteen) deaths according to the report by Nigeria Centre for Disease and Control (NCDC).

In an exclusive interaction , a Financial Engineer and the Chief Executives Officer (CEO) of Wyoming Capital, Tajudeen Olayinka said that the Lagos State decision to re-implement restriction on social gathering is a laudable policy, adding that the decision will not produce the same economic consequences as witnessed in the aftermath of total lockdown.

According to him, the economy cannot afford another total lockdown at this time. What Governor Babajide Sanw-Olu is possibly initiating is not the same as total lockdown, and so, would not produce the same economic consequences as witnessed in the aftermath of total lockdown.

“Nigerian the economy requires a rejuvenation, not another lockdown. The government should look for a much better way of managing the pandemic.”

Similarly, an Economist at PAC Holdings, Moses Ojo acknowledged that Nigeria like some other countries is facing the threat of the second wave of the pandemic, but said that total lockdown will push the hope of exiting the recession in the first quarter of 2021 at stake.

“There’s no doubt that Nigeria like some other countries is facing the threat of the second wave of the pandemic. The lockdown of the economy during the first wave led to the recession that we are now. Besides the economic cost of the lockdown, there is also the social cost as well.

“Policymakers are not expected to consider another lockdown as a measure to combat the second wave because it will push the economy further into recession and the hope of exiting the recession in the first quarter of 2021 might be dashed.

“I suggest that the best way to manage the surge in the pandemic and to contain its spread is by enforcing non-pharmaceutical measures such as the use of facemasks, hand washing, the use of alcoholic based hand sanitiser, social distancing and increased enlightenment of the people.

“Also, we may consider strict enforcement of screening of those coming into the country from other countries that are experiencing the second wave of the infection,” he added.

Also, the Chief Executives Officer (CEO) of Mascot Consult Limited, Marcel Okeke said, “Lagos state government is getting strict on the observance or enforcement of Covid-19 safety and sanitation protocols.

“This is why there are no penalties for not using a face mask in public places, for instance.

As for the economy, we’re already in a recession. All that can happen is that exit from the recession will take longer time. The recession may not worsen, but the economy will not grow fast.

“Unlike earlier this year, the world is ‘almost’ learning how to move forward, with or without covid-19. So, I don’t see the Nigerian situation getting worse, provided the Government tackles some internal challenges like insecurity squarely.

“What the Lagos State government has done are precautionary and proactive measures. And that’s in order, given the recrudescence of Covid-19, and the frightening figures of new and fatality cases in recent times,” he explained