Nigerians to Spend $4.97bn on NCDs by 2030 as FG Rakes billions

Samuel Mobolaji

By 2030, Nigerians may spend $4.97 billion on treating diabetes, obesity, and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs), underscoring the growing health crisis linked to excessive sugar consumption.

At the same time, the federal government has generated billions of naira through the Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSB) Tax, introduced in 2021 as a public health measure to curb sugar intake and boost fiscal revenues.

The tax, which imposes a levy of N10 per litre on carbonated drinks and other sugar-sweetened beverages, was implemented under the Finance Act 2021 and came into effect in July 2022. The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has been enforcing the policy, ensuring compliance among beverage producers and importers.

An authoritative source in the NCS confirmed that collections from the tax have run into billions, though exact figures remain undisclosed. Despite the significant revenue, there is little transparency on how the funds are allocated, raising concerns about whether they are being used to strengthen the health sector as originally intended.

Public health experts warn that the current tax rate is too low to drive meaningful behavioural change. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends that SSB taxes should increase beverage prices by at least 20 per cent to effectively reduce consumption.

In Nigeria, the N10 per litre tax translates to less than 5 per cent of retail prices. Experts argue that raising the tax to N130 per litre could generate an additional N729 billion annually, which could be reinvested into healthcare.

Economist Austine Iraoya, formerly of the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, stressed the economic burden of NCDs. He noted that treatment costs have surged from $2.37 billion in 2019 to a projected $4.97 billion by 2030.

According to him, excessive sugar consumption fuels obesity and diabetes, making fiscal measures like the SSB tax crucial in curbing these health risks.

International case studies show that higher SSB taxes have led to significant reductions in consumption. In the US state of Philadelphia, taxed SSB sales fell by 42 per cent, while Saudi Arabia recorded a 58 per cent decline. In South Africa, the tax reduced obesity prevalence by over three per cent in men and more than two per cent in women.

Despite these successes, Nigerian beverage manufacturers continue to resist the tax, arguing that it increases production costs and threatens jobs. The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) filed a lawsuit in 2022 challenging the tax, leading the Federal High Court in Abuja to suspend its collection in February 2025.

The court ruled that the finance ministry’s circular approving the tax exceeded its legal authority, though it upheld the N10 per litre rate under existing law.

Legal experts clarify that the ruling did not abolish the tax but only halted collections until procedural compliance is met. Public health advocates insist that Nigeria must follow the lead of other countries by raising the tax rate to deter excessive sugar consumption and ease the financial burden of NCDs.

With treatment costs for obesity and diabetes set to skyrocket, stakeholders are urging the government to prioritise health-focused taxation and ensure that SSB tax revenues are transparently allocated to strengthen Nigeria’s healthcare system.