Global economy to expand at a modest rate of 3% in 2020-Report

As Nigeria’s economic confidence slows in Q4 2019

Temitope Adeoye

Nigeria’s economic confidence has dropped in the last quarter of 2019, the latest Global Economic Condition Survey (GECS) by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and Institute of Management Accountants (IMA) has shown.

The GECS report, which was released recently, predicted that after slowing in 2019, the global economy is likely to expand at a steady modest rate of 3 per cent in 2020.

Commenting on this development, Head of ACCA Nigeria, Thomas Isibor, says that the World Bank expects Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to be maintained at around two per cent in 2020.

He explained that the economy remains heavily dependent on neither oil where neither prices nor output looks likely to boost the economy this year.

In addition, the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year to reduce smuggling has pushed up inflation, especially in the food category.

‘Double-digit inflation means that tight monetary policy will continue to act as a moderating influence on economic growth, which will remain below the rate needed to increase GDP per capita.’

He added that the Global economic confidence is expected to bounce back in Q4 2020, to around its level in mid-2019.

This is just as the global poll of 2,560 accountants shows that all key regions reported a bounce in confidence with South Asia and the Middle East leading the pack.

The report added that in the fourth quarter of 2019, global confidence survey shows that global inflation measure fell to the lowest level in three years at 42 per cent.

Also, Inflation in developed and many developing economies are running at low levels.

It also stated that the risks of 2019 will mainly persist into 2020, including a re-escalation of trade tensions, geopolitical risks especially in the Middle East, high levels of emerging market debt and the UK-EU trading relationship post-Brexit.

“Many risks to the global economy in 2020 are the same as in 2019, including trade tensions between the US and China, which were a major cause of slowing global growth,” Michael Taylor, ACCA’s chief economist explained.