Nigeria GDP Growth Slows To 3.1%, Oil, Industry Shrink

National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, in its latest release has said that Nigeria annual Gross Domestic Product, GDP grew by 3.1 per cent in 2022, representing a 0.3 percentage point decline from the 3.4 per cent recorded in 2021.

The decline NBS said follows lower performance of the agricultural sector occasioned by the impact of severe incidences of flood experienced across the country. It however said that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year, rose to 3.52 per cent from 2.25% in third quarter of 2022. The improved GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.69% and contributed 56.27% to the aggregate GDP.

The NBS report said “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.52%, year-on-year, in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022, following a growth of 2.25% in the third quarter of 2022 and 3.98% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.69% and contributed 56.27% to the aggregate GDP. Although the Agriculture sector grew by 2.05% in the reference period, its performance was significantly hampered by severe incidences of flood experienced across the country, accounting for lesser growth relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 which was 3.58%. Moreover, the Industry sector was yet challenged recording -0.94% growth and contributing less to the aggregate GDP relative to the third quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2021.

“Overall, the annual GDP growth rate in 2022 stood at 3.10%, from the 3.40% reported in 2021. Thus, the performance of agriculture and Industry reduced in 2022 relative to 2021, while the performance of the Services sector improved in 2022. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N56,757,889.95 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 which recorded aggregate GDP of N49,276,018.23 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 15.18%.” Reviewing economic activities in the oil sector, the NBS report further said “the nation in the fourth quarter of 2022 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.34 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.50mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.16mbpd and higher than the third quarter of 2022 production volume of 1.20 mbpd by 0.14mbpd. The real growth of the oil sector was –13.38% (year-on-year) in Q4 2022 indicating a decrease of 5.33% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021. Growth increased by 9.29% points when compared to Q3 2022 which was –22.67%. On a Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -14.93% in Q4 2022. However, the annual growth rate of oil stood at -19.22% compared to the -8.30% recorded in 2021. “The Oil sector contributed 4.34% to the total real GDP in Q4 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.19% and 5.66% respectively. The total annual contribution of oil to aggregate GDP in 2022 was 5.67%.”

In the non-oil sector, the NBS report said “the non-oil sector grew by 4.44% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2022). This rate was lower by 0.29% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2021 and 0.18% points higher than the third quarter of 2022. This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2022 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Trade; Agriculture (Crop Production); Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate and Construction, accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-Oil sector contributed 95.66% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021 which was 94.81% and higher than the third quarter of 2022 recorded as 94.34%. Moreover, on aggregate 94.33% was contributed in 2022, higher than the 92.76% reported in 2021.”