Nigeria’s oil losses crash from 97% to 2% under Tinubu-Elumelu

Nigeria’s crude oil production losses have plunged from as high as 97 per cent before President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office to just 2 per cent in June 2026, according to businessman and energy investor Tony Elumelu, in a development that could strengthen government revenue and Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil production targets.

Elumelu, who spoke while addressing President Tinubu in a video circulating on social media, said monthly fiscalisation data showed that 98 per cent of Nigeria’s oil production was accounted for in June, leaving only a 2 per cent loss.

“Mr President, every month, we do what is called fiscalisation. Last month, for June, and let’s let Nigeria know this, we got 98%. So, 2% loss. It’s significant,” he said.

The claim represents a dramatic improvement from the situation Elumelu described before the Tinubu administration came to power in 2023, when he said Nigeria was losing as much as 97 per cent of some oil production.

Elumelu, an investor in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry whose operations currently produce more than 58,000 barrels per day, said the improvement may not yet be fully understood by Nigerians because changes in the oil sector are not always immediately visible to the wider economy.

The improvement is significant because crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining have for years deprived Nigeria of production, export earnings and government revenue, while also limiting the country’s ability to meet its OPEC production allocation.

Elumelu had raised similar concerns in March 2022, when he said Nigeria was losing more than 95 per cent of production in some areas to oil thieves.

He cited the Bonny Terminal, which he said should have been receiving more than 200,000 barrels of crude per day but was receiving fewer than 3,000 barrels, a disruption that contributed to Shell declaring force majeure.

“How can we be losing over 95% of oil production to thieves?” Elumelu had asked at the time.

The latest assessment comes as Nigeria’s crude output continues to recover, although production remains below the level assumed in the 2026 budget.

OPEC data showed Nigeria produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day in July 2026, about 5,000 bpd above its OPEC quota of 1.50 million bpd.

July marked the third consecutive month in which Nigeria exceeded its OPEC production quota, although output fell from 1.53 million bpd in May and 1.55 million bpd in June.

Despite the recovery, July production was still about 335,000 bpd below the 1.84 million bpd production assumption underpinning the 2026 Federal Government budget.

The difference highlights the extent to which improved control of oil theft still needs to translate into sustained production growth if Nigeria is to fully benefit from stronger crude prices and meet its fiscal projections.

The improvement in oil production has coincided with intensified efforts by security agencies to tackle theft, illegal refining and attacks on oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta.

The Nigerian Navy recently said its Operation DELTA SENTINEL dismantled three illegal refining sites in Rivers State and recovered about 91,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil.

For Nigeria, reducing production losses from the levels previously reported could have significant fiscal and economic implications. Every additional barrel retained in the formal production and export system increases potential government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and the capacity of oil producers to invest in further output.

The challenge now is to ensure that the reported 2 per cent loss rate is sustained, while increasing production towards the budget target and making the gains from improved security visible in government revenues, investment and broader economic growth.