CBN’s $1.64bn FX sales concentrated in March as dollar

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold $1.64 billion through the foreign exchange spot market in the first half of 2026, with nearly 58 per cent of the total supplied in March, highlighting the uneven pattern of direct dollar sales as Nigeria’s currency market increasingly depends on broader foreign exchange inflows.

Data from the CBN’s second-quarter 2026 Statistical Bulletin show that spot sales reached $950.1 million in March, compared with $53 million in January and $225.1 million in February combined. Sales subsequently fell to $100 million in April, before recovering to $150 million in May and $159.57 million in June.

The concentration of sales in March is significant because the apex bank’s direct supply of dollars can influence liquidity conditions in the official market, particularly when demand from importers, manufacturers and other businesses is high.

Including sales to Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and other reported categories, the CBN’s total foreign exchange sales stood at about $1.67 billion during the six months. Sales to MDAs amounted to $20.37 million.

The first-half figure is substantially below the $8.20 billion the CBN sold through the spot market in the whole of 2025, although the comparison covers six months against a full year.

Monthly data for 2025 also showed significant fluctuations, with spot sales reaching $1.65 billion in April before declining to $146.70 million in October and recovering to $910.22 million in December.

The latest figures come as Nigeria continues to pursue exchange-rate stability following the foreign exchange reforms introduced in 2023. Rather than relying solely on direct interventions, the market has increasingly been influenced by foreign investment, export receipts, remittances and other private-sector inflows.

Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, an 83.8 per cent increase from $5.64 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The banking industry accounted for $7.55 billion, or 72.8 per cent of the total.

The figures underscore the growing importance of investor confidence and non-CBN sources of foreign exchange in determining dollar liquidity.

However, lower direct sales do not necessarily mean that the market has received less foreign exchange overall. The CBN’s spot sales represent only one component of the country’s wider foreign exchange supply, which also includes autonomous inflows from exporters, investors and other market participants.

For businesses, the key issue is whether available dollars can meet legitimate demand at predictable exchange rates. Manufacturers and import-dependent companies require reliable access to foreign exchange to pay for machinery, raw materials and other inputs, while currency volatility can complicate investment decisions and increase operating costs.

The concentration of CBN sales in March also highlights the importance of monitoring whether private inflows can sustain market liquidity when direct central bank supply is limited.

With Nigeria’s foreign exchange market still balancing demand for dollars against the need for stability, the direction of autonomous inflows, investor sentiment and the CBN’s intervention strategy will remain important determinants of exchange-rate conditions.

The broader economic test is whether Nigeria can sustain a liquid, predictable foreign exchange market through durable export earnings, remittances and productive investment, reducing the need to rely on intermittent central bank dollar sales to meet market pressures.