Nigeria’s non-oil export sector recorded a historic 24.75% surge in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $1.791 billion, up from $1.436 billion in Q1 2024, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC). This marks the highest quarterly non-oil export value in the NEPC’s 49-year history, driven by increased agricultural, manufacturing, and solid mineral activities. The export volume rose by 24.74% to 2.416 million metric tonnes, with 197 distinct products, led by cocoa (45.02% of total value), urea/fertilizers (19.32%), and cashew nuts (5.81%). The growth aligns with Nigeria’s Renewed Hope Agenda to diversify its economy from oil dependency. Exports reached markets in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, with the Netherlands, Belgium, and Brazil as top destinations. Within Africa, exports to ECOWAS countries soared by 223.10% to $63.06 million, while other African nations imported $32.732 million worth of goods. The NEPC’s “Double Your Exports” initiative and collaborations with the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Investment have bolstered this performance. The 2024 cumulative non-oil export value of $5.456 billion, a 20.79% increase from 2023, signals sustained momentum. The. Despite challenges like infrastructure deficits, Nigeria’s strategic focus on value-added products and policy stability positions it for continued growth, with projections suggesting a potential shift to net exporter status for refined petroleum products by 2027.

Money Market 

System liquidity opened the session with a ₦1.25 trillion surplus. The Open Buy Back (OBB) rate closed flat at 26.50%, while the Overnight (OVN) rate declined by 4bps to close the week at 26.83%.

FGN Treasury Bills Market

The Treasury Bills market began the week on a bearish note, as investors moved to book profits following gains from the previous OMO auction. Midweek, the Central Bank announced a fresh OMO auction, during which it allotted ₦804.85bn from total subscriptions worth ₦1.06trn. The stop rate on the 329-day tenor declined by 4bps to close at 22.69%, while the 350-day closed flat at 22.73%. To close the week, Apr 14 OMO bill was seen quoted at 22.55/22.45, while trades were seen consummated on the Apr 23 NTB at 19.45%. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield decreased by 18bps to close at 20.35%.

We expect a quiet start to the week, as market attention turns to the upcoming PMA auction.

FGN Bond Market

The FGN Bond Market opened the week on a quiet note, as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the bond auction. At the auction, the Debt Management Office (DMO) allotted ₦397.89bn against total subscriptions of ₦495.95bn. The stop rate on the 2029 maturity and the 2033 maturity remained unchanged at 19.00% and 19.99%, respectively. Toward the end of the week, trading remained muted with no significant shifts in yields. The 2031 garnered demand with trades consummated as low as 19.75%, while the 2033 maturity was seen around 20.05/19.95. Week-on-week, the average benchmark yield closed flat at 18.60%.

We expect a similar trend.

FGN Eurobond Market

The Eurobond market began the week on a quiet note, with no major catalyst driving price action. As the week progressed, bearish sentiment emerged following a drop in crude oil prices from the $66 level to around $60, triggered by disappointing China PMI data that indicated a contraction in manufacturing activity. This led to a broad sell-off and a rise in yields across the curve. However, sentiment shifted at the end of the week after stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data helped restore investor confidence, resulting in yield compression.    On the data front, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change disappointed at 62k, well below the 114k forecast. The Advance GDP also surprised to the downside, contracting -0.3% q/q versus expectations of 0.2% growth.  Meanwhile, Core PCE printed at 0.0%, lower than the expected 0.1%, and NFP beat forecasts with a print of 177k compared to 138k forecast. Week-on-Week, the average benchmark yield increased by 58bps to 10.41%.

We look forward to the ISM Services PMI and the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Currency Market

The value of the Naira to the dollar declined by 0.16% to close at ₦1602.18/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Window (NFEM).

Equities Market

The local bourse ended the day with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 23bps to close at 106,042.57. Market capitalization also increased, closing at ₦66.66 trillion. Market breadth was negative at 0.71x, with 29 advancers and 41 decliners. Meanwhile, trading activity was robust on the day, as the volume of shares traded increased by 45.9% to 573.33 million units, while the total value of shares traded increased by 19.6% to ₦15.25 billion.

Reflecting the week’s performance, the NGX All-Share Index posted a 1-week gain of 0.27%, driven by gains in ABCTRANS (+44.87%), LEGENDINT (+32.40%) and FIDSON (+22.85%), despite being weighed down by declines in ETI (-18.75%), MULTIVERSE (-18.59%), and LIVESTOCK (-10.63%). Overall, the NGX has posted a year-to-date gain of 3.03%. Other notable indices are the NGX Top 30 Index (0.34%; 0.58% 1WK; 3.30% YTD), NGX Banking Index (-1.49%; -0.38% 1WK; 3.76% YTD), NGX Oil & Gas Index (-0.17%; -2.90% 1WK; -13.32% YTD), and NGX Insurance Index (-3.50%; -2.89% 1WK; -9.66% YTD).