Nigeria flips N1.67trn raw-material deficit to N466.8bn surplus

Nigeria’s raw-material trade balance swung from a N1.67 trillion deficit to a N466.79 billion surplus in the first half of 2026, marking a N2.13 trillion turnaround and providing a significant boost to the country’s non-oil trade position.

The reversal was driven by a more than doubling of raw-material exports, which climbed 105.9 per cent year-on-year to N3.84 trillion in the six months to June, while imports fell 4.5 per cent to N3.37 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) Q2 2026 Foreign Trade Statistics.

The development represents a sharp break from Nigeria’s historical pattern of importing far more raw materials than it exports. The country recorded annual raw-material trade deficits throughout the 2016-2025 period, with the gap reaching N4.79 trillion in 2024 before narrowing to N3.80 trillion in 2025.

The first-half 2026 surplus therefore marks the first half-year surplus in the data reviewed and signals a potentially important shift in Nigeria’s non-oil trade structure.

The improvement was heavily driven by the second quarter, when raw-material exports surged to N2.31 trillion from N819.72 billion in the same quarter of 2025, an increase of about 181 per cent.

In the first quarter, Nigeria still recorded a narrow raw-material trade deficit of N48.61 billion, with exports of N1.53 trillion against imports of N1.58 trillion. The position changed decisively in Q2 as exports climbed above N2.31 trillion while imports stood at N1.79 trillion, producing a quarterly surplus of N515.40 billion.

The figures are significant for Nigeria’s foreign exchange position. Higher raw-material exports mean more export earnings from outside the oil sector, while the decline in imports reduces demand for dollars to finance industrial inputs.

But the numbers also present a policy dilemma for the economy.

Raw materials are inputs into manufacturing, meaning a sharp rise in exports can be positive for foreign exchange earnings while potentially putting pressure on domestic manufacturers if locally produced materials are diverted to higher-paying overseas markets.

That makes the composition of the export surge important. The long-term economic benefit will be greater if the stronger production of raw materials also supports domestic processing, manufacturing and value addition rather than simply increasing shipments of commodities in their relatively unprocessed form.

The turnaround comes as Nigeria seeks to reduce dependence on imported inputs and strengthen domestic production. The Raw Materials Research and Development Council has previously called for greater use of locally sourced materials, particularly to reduce the manufacturing sector’s exposure to imported inputs.

The scale of the change is nevertheless striking. Raw-material exports in the first half of 2026 have already reached 93.7 per cent of the N4.10 trillion exported during the whole of 2025.

At the same time, first-half imports of N3.37 trillion represent only 42.7 per cent of the N7.90 trillion imported during 2025.

That shift has helped transform a sector that recorded a N3.80 trillion full-year deficit in 2025 into a surplus within six months.

For Nigeria, the immediate gains are stronger export receipts, lower import pressure and a better trade balance. The bigger economic prize, however, lies in converting the raw-material boom into domestic factories, jobs and higher-value exports.

A sustained surplus would be far more significant if Nigeria can move from being a supplier of raw materials to becoming a competitive producer of processed goods, ensuring that the country captures a larger share of the value generated from its own resources.