Nigeria eyes 3m bpd oil output by 2030 as production hits four-year high
Nigeria has expressed confidence that it will achieve crude oil production of three million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, as ongoing regulatory reforms, improved security and fresh investments continue to lift output to its highest level in more than four years.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said the country remains firmly on course to meet the production target after crude oil output climbed to 1.56 million bpd in June, the highest monthly production since April 2020, while total liquids production, including condensates, reached 1.735 million bpd.
The improved performance enabled Nigeria to exceed its OPEC crude oil production quota for the second consecutive month, signalling a sustained recovery in the upstream petroleum sector after years of declining output caused by crude theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment.
Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the commission was optimistic that the target was achievable as key reforms designed to accelerate investments and improve operational efficiency were already yielding results.
“The national target is to get to three million barrels by 2030. I believe we can get there,” she said, noting that faster permitting processes, quicker crude sales approvals and improved regulatory efficiency were creating a more attractive environment for investors.
Eyesan explained that the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including fiscal incentives, tax waivers and streamlined regulatory approvals, were encouraging fresh capital inflows into Nigeria’s upstream oil industry.
The regulator also attributed the recent production recovery to improved pipeline security, reduced crude oil theft and stronger operational performance across producing assets.
Industry data further showed that indigenous oil companies now account for about 60 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production, underscoring the growing role of local operators in driving future output growth.
Recent investments are expected to strengthen the recovery further. ExxonMobil is scheduled to commence production from a 40,000 bpd oilfield in August, while Renaissance Africa Energy recently announced a fresh oil discovery expected to contribute additional volumes in the coming years.
The NUPRC noted that stronger international crude oil prices have also encouraged operators to reactivate previously dormant wells and expand production activities across existing assets.
Despite the optimism, industry analysts cautioned that attaining the ambitious three million bpd target would require sustained investments beyond restoring production from existing fields.
They stressed that accelerated development of new discoveries, expansion of production infrastructure, continued implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act reforms and sustained efforts to combat crude oil theft would remain critical to achieving the government’s long-term production objective.
The renewed production outlook comes as Nigeria intensifies efforts to restore its position as Africa’s leading crude oil producer while increasing revenues, attracting foreign investment and strengthening the country’s role within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
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