Nigeria’s trade surplus jumps to N12.6trn as exports surge

Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus more than doubled to N12.60 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, as stronger exports and a year-on-year decline in imports boosted the country’s external position and could provide further support for foreign-exchange liquidity.

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that total merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion between April and June, up 5.61 per cent from N39.24 trillion in Q2 2025 and 19.13 per cent from N34.79 trillion in Q1 2026.

Exports accounted for 65.20 per cent of total trade, rising 18.77 per cent year-on-year to N27.02 trillion and 27.64 per cent quarter-on-quarter from N21.17 trillion.

Imports stood at N14.42 trillion, down 12.55 per cent from N16.49 trillion a year earlier but up 5.91 per cent from N13.62 trillion in Q1.

The resulting N12.60 trillion surplus was substantially higher than the approximately N7.55 trillion recorded in the first quarter, strengthening Nigeria’s external buffer.

The improvement is significant for the naira because sustained trade surpluses can increase foreign-exchange supply when export receipts are converted into dollar inflows. However, the composition of the surplus shows that Nigeria remains heavily dependent on petroleum rather than a broad-based export transformation.

Crude oil remained the dominant export, valued at N12.91 trillion, or 47.79 per cent of total exports. Crude exports increased 7.93 per cent year-on-year and 15.28 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Other oil products performed even better, rising 34.08 per cent year-on-year to N10.38 trillion and 53.05 per cent from Q1. Together, crude and other oil products generated about N23.29 trillion, representing roughly 86 per cent of total exports.

This leaves the trade position vulnerable to changes in crude production and international oil prices.

Non-oil export performance was mixed. Agricultural exports fell 36.09 per cent year-on-year to N802.99 billion, from N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025, and dropped 31.51 per cent from Q1. Cashew nuts in shell, cocoa beans and sesame seeds were the leading agricultural exports.

Manufactured exports recorded an even sharper decline, falling 51.10 per cent year-on-year to N393.03 billion, although they recovered 29.87 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Raw-material exports, by contrast, surged 181.24 per cent year-on-year to N2.31 trillion, driven partly by urea, while solid-mineral exports increased 90.03 per cent to N146.91 billion.

The pattern highlights a persistent weakness in Nigeria’s trade structure: export growth is still concentrated in commodities, with relatively limited domestic processing and value addition. Non-oil products accounted for only about N3.73 trillion, or 13.80 per cent of total exports.

On the import side, manufactured goods dominated, accounting for N9.51 trillion, or 65.94 per cent of imports. Raw materials stood at N1.79 trillion, while agricultural imports reached N1.20 trillion.

Agricultural imports increased 45.43 per cent quarter-on-quarter, underscoring Nigeria’s continued dependence on foreign food and agricultural supplies despite its ambitions to expand domestic production and exports.

China remained Nigeria’s largest import source, with N5.92 trillion, or 41.02 per cent of total imports. The United States, India, the Netherlands and Germany followed.

India, meanwhile, was Nigeria’s largest export destination at N3.29 trillion, followed by Spain, the Netherlands, the United States and Togo. The five markets accounted for 38.51 per cent of total exports.

The trade improvement also coincided with stronger economic growth. Nigeria’s economy expanded 4.43 per cent in real terms in Q2 2026, while nominal GDP reached N119.29 trillion. Average crude production also rose to 1.72 million barrels per day, from 1.55 million bpd in Q1.