Kano Emirate Crisis: Group Alerts Plan for NDC Takeover in 2027...

The battle for the soul of Kano may have entered a decisive political phase, with an emerging alliance between the camp of deposed Emir Aminu Ado Bayero and former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso raising fresh questions over the real political calculations behind the lingering emirate crisis. Findings by Kano Vanguard for Good Governance indicates that influential figures within Bayero’s camp are increasingly signalling sympathy towards Kwankwaso’s Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), amid growing hostility towards President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf. Although no formal political pact between Bayero and Kwankwaso has been publicly announced, the convergence of interests is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

A statement signed by Ahmed Dano, Chairman of Kano Vanguard for Good Governance, which was made available to newsmen on Wednesday noted that the latest confrontation came on September 27, when the Kano State Government restricted all Durbar processions and horse-riding activities across the Kano metropolis after its Security Council cited heavy mobilisation of supporters and the risk of confrontation. The directive came amid competing traditional programmes involving Bayero’s camp and the Kano Emirate Council, with reports indicating that Bayero rode through parts of the city accompanied by a large crowd. The government maintained that the restriction was a security measure intended to prevent clashes, protect lives and property and preserve public order. But beneath the immediate security explanation lies a deeper political struggle over influence, loyalty and the future direction of Kano.
What has particularly caught political observers’ attention is the conduct of sections of Bayero’s supporters. During the mobilisation, supporters were reported to have pulled down posters, billboards and banners associated with President Tinubu and Governor Abba Yusuf, while chanting slogans suggesting that both politicians would serve only one term. Kano Vanguard has not established that Bayero personally authorised these actions, but their occurrence represents a striking departure from the traditional character of an emirate dispute and points towards a possible political mobilisation against the APC establishment. The question now being asked in political circles is whether the former emir’s support base is gradually becoming part of a wider electoral strategy.

That question gained further traction following comments attributed to Aminu Babba Dan’agundi, a senior district head and prominent figure in Bayero’s camp. In a local radio interview, Dan’agundi reportedly described Kwankwaso as his friend and indicated the possibility of supporting the NDC in 2027.

For political watchers, the significance lies less in the personal relationship than in the timing. Kwankwaso has already positioned the NDC as a vehicle for reclaiming political influence in Kano, with Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo emerging as the party’s governorship candidate and Mustapha Kwankwaso, the former governor’s son, selected as his running mate.
The emerging picture therefore suggests a potentially consequential political bargain: the Kwankwasiyya structure provides the electoral machinery, while elements sympathetic to Bayero could provide access to a traditional constituency opposed to the present political establishment. Such an arrangement could serve different interests simultaneously the NDC’s ambition to capture Kano and the desire among Bayero’s supporters to regain political leverage over the emirate question. Kano Vanguard stresses, however, that this is an assessment of the political signals emerging from Kano, not evidence of a signed or publicly declared agreement between Bayero and Kwankwaso.

The stakes are enormous. Kwankwaso is already deeply embedded in the NDC’s Kano strategy; the party’s governorship nomination process was conducted under his influence, while his son was subsequently unveiled as the running mate to Gwarzo. At the same time, Governor Abba Yusuf’s movement into the APC has fundamentally altered the political alliances that previously linked his administration to the Kwankwasiyya camp. That realignment has left Kano with a three-way political contest involving the APC establishment, the Kwankwasiyya-backed NDC structure and the competing interests surrounding the emirate crisis.

For now, the most important unanswered question is whether the apparent convergence between Bayero’s camp and Kwankwaso’s political machinery will mature into an open electoral alliance in 2027. Kano Vanguard contacted persons on the Kwankwaso side for clarification on the reported political understanding and whether discussions had taken place with representatives of Aminu Ado Bayero regarding the NDC’s Kano project. Text messages sent to Kwankwaso seeking his response had not received a reply as of publication. Until either side publicly confirms such an arrangement, the alleged alliance remains an emerging political narrative — but one that could significantly reshape the battle for Kano if the signals now coming from Bayero’s camp translate into votes, mobilisation and an organised campaign for the NDC in 2027.