Nigeria targets 21% debt-service burden, 7.79% growth by 2030

…Pursues revenue boost, investment-grade credit rating, $1trn economy

The Federal Government has unveiled ambitious economic targets for 2030, including reducing the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent, lowering public debt relative to gross domestic product from 36.07 per cent to 18.83 per cent, and raising average annual economic growth to 7.79 per cent over the 2026–2030 period.

The targets form part of Nigeria’s roadmap to achieving investment-grade sovereign credit status by 2030 and transforming the economy into a diversified, globally competitive $1 trillion economy.

The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed the projections at the sixth International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited, where she outlined the Federal Government’s economic development priorities under the proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030.

According to her, government revenue is projected to increase from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030, while capital expenditure is expected to rise from 36.03 per cent to 57.43 per cent of total government expenditure over the same period.

The minister also said the government’s preferred development scenario envisages real GDP growth accelerating from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent in 2030, with gross capital formation projected to reach 40 per cent of GDP by the end of the period.

The private sector is expected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment under the plan.

However, the government acknowledged that the figures remain projections whose achievement will depend on effective implementation of economic reforms, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent debt management, increased private investment and improvements in productivity.

Uzoka-Anite said the pursuit of investment-grade sovereign credit status must be anchored on stronger economic fundamentals rather than treated as an end in itself.

She identified sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity, stronger external buffers and credible institutions as essential conditions for building investor confidence and securing more favourable access to international capital.

According to her, Nigeria’s experience under the National Development Plan 2021–2025 demonstrated the scale of the challenge, as real GDP growth averaged 3.11 per cent during the period, below the plan’s target of 4.65 per cent.

Although the economy recorded growth of 3.87 per cent in 2025, according to the figures cited by the minister, she noted that persistent structural constraints, including inflation, inadequate infrastructure, limited fiscal space and low industrial productivity, continued to weigh on the country’s development prospects.

She also acknowledged that cost-of-living pressures and poverty remained significant concerns despite the economic reforms introduced since 2023.

The reforms include petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange market changes, public financial management measures and efforts to improve domestic revenue mobilisation.

The enactment of four major tax laws in 2025 was also identified as part of the government’s efforts to simplify tax administration, improve compliance and strengthen revenue collection.

The minister, however, stressed that the ultimate test of the reforms would be their capacity to stabilise the economy, reduce production costs, create jobs and improve living standards.

Revenue and debt management take centre stage.

A central element of the government’s strategy is to increase revenue sufficiently to reduce pressure on public finances and free up resources for infrastructure and other development priorities.

Uzoka-Anite said Nigeria must broaden its revenue base, improve tax compliance, digitalise revenue administration and reduce dependence on volatile oil revenues.

She argued that increased revenue must be accompanied by more efficient public spending, with government resources directed towards infrastructure, education, healthcare, human capital development and economic diversification.

On debt management, the minister said borrowing could support development if directed towards productive investments capable of expanding economic output and strengthening the government’s revenue base.

She warned, however, that weak revenue generation and high debt-servicing costs could undermine fiscal sustainability.

The International Monetary Fund estimated Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, according to the minister’s address, underscoring the need for stronger revenue mobilisation and fiscal adjustment.

Under the proposed development plan, the government expects public debt to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030.

More significantly, the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio is projected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent over the same period.

The projected reduction would ease the proportion of government revenue absorbed by debt servicing, potentially creating more fiscal space for capital investment and essential public services.

Achieving that outcome, however, would require sustained revenue growth, disciplined borrowing, effective debt management and economic expansion strong enough to support the government’s fiscal objectives.

Uzoka-Anite said the government would continue to strengthen debt management, manage refinancing risks and deepen domestic capital markets.

She also identified Sukuk, green bonds and carefully structured public-private partnerships as potential instruments for financing development, provided that fiscal risks were properly assessed and projects delivered value for money.

Private investment seen as growth engine

The government’s growth strategy also places considerable emphasis on private-sector investment, economic diversification and productivity.

Uzoka-Anite said Nigeria could not build a sustainable credit profile on a narrow economic base, noting that agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics offered opportunities to expand production, exports and employment.

The projected increase in gross capital formation to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030 reflects the scale of investment required to support the plan’s growth ambitions.

With the private sector expected to provide approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment, the government’s ability to attract domestic and foreign capital will be critical to the plan’s implementation.

This would require improvements in electricity supply, transport infrastructure, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.

The minister said the government’s responsibility was to create an enabling environment for businesses, strengthen domestic value chains and support sectors capable of raising productivity.

For Nigeria to achieve sustained high growth, investment would need to translate into expanded productive capacity, stronger manufacturing, competitive exports and jobs capable of improving household incomes.

The $1 trillion economy ambition would therefore depend not only on the size of nominal GDP but also on the strength of the productive sectors, the quality of investment and the sustainability of economic expansion.

Institutions, policy credibility critical to credit rating

Uzoka-Anite identified institutional quality, transparency, accountability and policy consistency as additional requirements for improving Nigeria’s sovereign creditworthiness.

She said investors needed confidence in the country’s regulatory environment, public procurement processes, economic statistics and implementation of government policies.

The Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, she added, was working to strengthen the alignment of the National Development Plan with annual budgets, the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, sector strategies and implementable investment programmes.

The ministry is also institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to monitor indicators covering economic growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, debt, investment, external-sector developments and employment.

A Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee has also been constituted to report to the Economic Management Team on the performance of key macroeconomic indicators.

According to the minister, the initiatives are intended to strengthen evidence-based policymaking, improve coordination and support timely policy adjustments.

She further said the credibility of the National Development Plan would depend on effective implementation, coordination with state governments, reliable data and transparent monitoring of progress.

The minister also highlighted the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme as an opportunity to connect national development priorities with local infrastructure, production, employment and basic services across Nigeria’s 8,809 wards.

She said its success would depend on adequate financing, effective targeting, transparent implementation and measurable outcomes.

DataPro seeks stronger African credit markets.

Earlier, the Founder of DataPro Limited, Mr Abimbola Adeseyoju, said sovereign credit ratings had become an important instrument for economic transformation, influencing the flow of investment, the cost of funds and the capacity of governments to finance infrastructure and industrial development.

He said African countries needed to strengthen fiscal sustainability, deepen domestic capital markets, improve transparency and provide investors with reliable information to support investment decisions.

Adeseyoju also called for greater recognition of Africa’s economic circumstances and growth potential in global credit-rating assessments.

According to him, the continent’s ambition to achieve investment-grade status would depend on deliberate policy implementation, sound market infrastructure and stronger cross-border collaboration.

He reaffirmed DataPro’s commitment to providing credible market intelligence to bridge the gap between capital seekers and investors.

The webinar brought together policymakers, regulators, capital market operators, finance professionals and other stakeholders to examine the role of credit ratings in economic development.

The government’s 2030 ambition will ultimately be tested by its ability to translate the proposed targets into measurable improvements in public finances, investment, productivity and living standards.

While the projections offer a framework for Nigeria’s economic aspirations, achieving them will require sustained implementation, greater fiscal discipline and a business environment capable of attracting the investment needed to expand productive capacity.

For households and businesses, the significance of the plan will lie not merely in improved credit ratings or a larger GDP, but in whether the anticipated economic gains translate into more jobs, lower production costs, stronger purchasing power and better access to essential services.