How NNPC's $20bn gas deals fail to deliver 2 million bpd oil pro...

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has yet to achieve its long-standing crude oil production target of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) despite securing more than $20 billion in gas investment commitments, restoring operations across major crude export terminals and recording its highest oil output in five years.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd., Bashir Bayo Ojulari, disclosed on Monday that Nigeria’s crude oil production had increased to 1.71 million bpd, still falling short of the national target, even as the company continues to implement reforms aimed at boosting production, attracting investment and strengthening revenue generation.

Speaking during the opening ceremony of the Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week Conference in Abuja, Ojulari said NNPC had achieved an average 98 per cent operational recovery across the country’s five crude oil export terminals between April 2025 and May 2026, compared with operational lows of barely one per cent recorded at the Bonny Oil and Gas Terminal in June 2022.

He said the improved operational performance had significantly enhanced crude evacuation, enabling Nigeria to attain its highest production level in five years, while NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL) posted a record output of 365,000 barrels per day.

Despite the progress, the current production level remains below the company’s strategic target of producing two million barrels daily, a milestone management insists remains achievable.

Ojulari also disclosed that gas production had risen to 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) following the successful completion of the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline and the commissioning of the ANOH Gas Processing Plant.

In a major boost to Nigeria’s gas commercialisation agenda, the NNPC boss announced the execution of Gas Sale and Purchase Agreements covering 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day for long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedstock and an additional 750 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic industrial gas supply to DFL FZE and the Dangote Refinery.

According to him, the agreements are expected to unlock more than $20 billion in fresh investments across the gas value chain, while seven additional commercial transactions are currently being finalised.

Ojulari further revealed that NNPC maintained 100 per cent compliance with all Joint Venture cash call obligations throughout 2025 and up to June 2026, describing the achievement as critical to sustaining investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

He added that the company resumed full monthly remittances to the Federation Account in July 2025, reinstated monthly business performance reporting and conducted its first earnings call in November 2025 as part of broader reforms designed to improve transparency, accountability and corporate governance.

Calling for stronger collaboration across the oil and gas industry, Ojulari urged government, investors and industry stakeholders to deepen partnerships capable of unlocking Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon resources, accelerating investment inflows and supporting industrial development.

Although NNPC presented the operational milestones as evidence of ongoing reforms within the energy sector, industry analysts maintained that the ultimate measure of success would remain the company’s ability to consistently raise crude oil production to the two million barrels per day target while increasing remittances to the Federation Account and delivering sustainable value to the Nigerian economy.