Global goods trade hits $13.7trn as AI, EV demand drive growth

Global trade in goods rose to about $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, representing a 12.5 per cent increase from the corresponding period of 2025, as strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EVs) and critical technology components drove a broad expansion in merchandise trade.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in its latest report, Global trade continues to expand amid rising price pressures, said the growth was supported partly by higher prices and strong activity in East Asia, while global services trade increased by 10.5 per cent year-on-year.

The latest figures highlight the growing importance of technology-related products in global commerce, with critical minerals, semiconductors, batteries, information and communication technology (ICT) goods and electric vehicles all recording double-digit growth.

Critical minerals recorded the strongest increase, rising 38 per cent in the first quarter, while semiconductor trade grew 25 per cent. Battery trade increased by 15 per cent, ICT goods by 14 per cent and electric vehicle trade by 11 per cent.

UNCTAD said developing economies in East Asia were among the biggest drivers of global trade growth, recording double-digit quarterly expansion and contributing strongly to South-South trade.

The agency said trade among developing countries increased at a double-digit pace over the past 12 months when East Asian economies were included, underscoring the growing influence of emerging markets in global commerce.

However, the expansion was uneven. Excluding East Asia, developing economies as a group recorded a contraction in trade during the first quarter, largely because of weaker imports and exports in the Middle East and South Asia.

Developed economies maintained a similar pace of positive quarterly trade growth to the previous quarter, while intra-regional trade expanded across most regions but remained weak in South America.

Over the past year, import growth was particularly strong in Africa, East Asia and Europe, with those regions also recording significant increases in intra-regional trade.

For Africa, the broader expansion offers an opportunity to increase exports of raw materials and intermediate goods linked to the global technology and energy transition, although the continent’s ability to capture greater value will depend on investment in processing and manufacturing capacity.

UNCTAD has warned that developing economies face another major barrier in the form of non-tariff measures, which are increasingly driving trade costs.

The agency said least developed countries lose about 10 per cent of their exports to G20 economies because they struggle to comply with increasingly complex non-tariff requirements.

UNCTAD said that while global attention had focused heavily on tariffs and trade tensions following the disruptions of 2025, non-tariff measures had become the dominant source of trade costs for most economies, particularly developing countries.

The latest trade expansion follows a strong performance in 2025, when global trade benefited from an 11 per cent increase in manufacturing activity, while agricultural trade also expanded across products including cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.

Global investment flows have also remained relatively strong. UNCTAD previously reported that global foreign direct investment rose 6 per cent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, from $1.5 trillion in 2024.

However, Nigeria has yet to capture the full benefit of the global investment and trade expansion.

Nigeria’s foreign direct investment declined sharply in the first quarter of 2026 to $135.08 million, from $357.80 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The decline occurred even as the country attracted total capital inflows of $10.37 billion during the quarter, largely through portfolio investments and other short-term financial instruments.

The contrast underscores the challenge facing Nigeria: while global trade is increasingly being driven by technology, advanced manufacturing and regional supply chains, Nigeria’s ability to attract long-term productive capital remains comparatively weak.

The global trade figures therefore point to both opportunity and risk for Nigeria and other developing economies. The opportunity lies in capturing rising demand for critical minerals, energy products, agricultural commodities and technology inputs, while the risk is remaining concentrated in low-value exports as other economies move further into processing and manufacturing.

For Nigeria, the next phase of trade growth will depend increasingly on its capacity to expand production, meet international standards, attract long-term investment and move beyond commodity exports into higher-value segments of global supply chains.