Nigeria courts $50bn oil investment as Pertamina eyes offshore

Nigeria is stepping up efforts to attract a new wave of oil and gas investment, with the Federal Government targeting up to $50 billion in fresh deep offshore capital while Indonesia’s state-owned energy company, Pertamina, considers Nigerian producing and near-production assets ahead of the country’s next licensing round.

The developments come as Nigeria seeks to raise crude oil production from about 1.7 million barrels per day to three million barrels per day by 2030, a target that would require substantial investment in exploration, field development and infrastructure.

President Bola Tinubu said recent reforms had been designed to unlock as much as $50 billion in deep offshore investment, beginning with the approximately $10 billion Bonga South West project.

Speaking at the fifth anniversary of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in Abuja, Tinubu, represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, said the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order 2026 was intended to replace uncertainty with clear and published investment criteria.

The reform is significant because some of Nigeria’s largest offshore discoveries have remained undeveloped for years, partly because investors have struggled with project economics, long contracting cycles and fiscal uncertainty.

The new framework could therefore release capital into projects capable of generating additional crude production, foreign exchange earnings and government revenue while creating work for Nigerian engineers, fabricators, marine operators and other oilfield service companies.

The NUPRC said the deep offshore incentive framework could unlock up to $50 billion in investment and potentially add about one million barrels per day of crude and condensate production from deep offshore projects. The regulator said deep offshore currently accounts for about 24 per cent of Nigeria’s crude and condensate production.

The investment push is already attracting fresh international attention.

Pertamina is considering investments in Nigeria’s upstream sector, including producing assets and projects approaching final investment decision, while also expressing interest in the upcoming 2026 licensing round.

Pertamina’s Vice-President for Upstream Business Development, Toriq Abdat, said the Indonesian company was looking for producing or near-production assets capable of delivering output within a relatively short period as it expands beyond Indonesia, where domestic production has fallen to about 600,000 barrels per day.

The discussions between Pertamina, NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan and Indonesian officials focused on energy security, upstream investment and opportunities for both countries to increase production.

For Nigeria, the timing is important. The NUPRC said 22 major offshore projects are expected between 2026 and 2030, with estimated investment potential of between $30 billion and $50 billion. It also said more than $57 billion in field development plans had been approved since 2024, some of which have progressed to final investment decisions.

The scale of the proposed investment represents a major attempt to reverse years of declining upstream capital spending. NUPRC has said annual oil and gas investment fell from about $26 billion in 2014 to roughly $2 billion by 2023.

The licensing strategy is also widening. In the 2025 licensing round, 143 companies submitted 200 bids for 37 of the 50 blocks offered, with 31 companies emerging as successful bidders for 37 blocks.

The economic prize extends beyond crude output. More upstream investment would mean larger foreign exchange inflows, higher government revenue, stronger demand for local oilfield services and greater activity across construction, engineering, logistics and manufacturing.

But the investment commitments will only translate into economic gains if projects move from approvals and licence awards to final investment decisions, construction and sustained production.

With Nigeria now offering clearer offshore investment terms while attracting new players such as Pertamina, the emerging test is whether the reforms can convert renewed investor interest into barrels, dollars, jobs and industrial activity at the scale required to reach the three-million-barrel-a-day target.