Nigeria’s oil output falls 4% to 1.5mbpd in July

Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by about 4 per cent in July 2026 to an average of 1.505 million barrels per day (bpd), but remained marginally above the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5 million bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The latest decline, driven largely by operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo oil fields, interrupted six consecutive months of rising output and threatens to slow the Federal Government’s drive to boost crude production, foreign exchange earnings and oil revenues.

NUPRC data showed that July crude oil production dropped by about 65,000 bpd from the 1.570 million bpd recorded in June, representing a 3.75 per cent month-on-month decline.

When condensates of about 170,000 bpd are included, Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.67 million bpd during the month, down from 1.735 million bpd in June.

Despite the setback, July marked the third consecutive month in which Nigeria produced above its OPEC quota, reinforcing the gradual recovery in the country’s upstream sector after years of production disruptions and underinvestment.

In a statement issued on Wednesday by the Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, the NUPRC confirmed that the country remained above its OPEC production allocation despite the month-on-month decline.

“Although Nigeria met its OPEC quota in July, the statistics show that on a month-on-month basis, production fell by four per cent,” the Commission said.

The regulator said combined crude oil and condensate production fluctuated between 1.57 million bpd and 1.78 million bpd during July, averaging 1.67 million bpd.

It attributed the decline mainly to operational disruptions at the Erha and Akpo fields, which constrained national production during the month.

“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output,” NUPRC stated.

The Commission, however, said production from other assets remained relatively stable, while operators continued to implement measures to maintain efficiency and limit the impact of the disruptions.

It added that industry operators were working to restore the affected production capacity and strengthen asset reliability.

“Industry stakeholders remain focused on addressing the identified operational issues, restoring affected production capacity and strengthening asset reliability to support improved performance in subsequent months,” it said.

The production decline came after a strong first-half recovery in Nigeria’s oil output. Combined crude oil and condensate production rose from 1.459 million bpd in January to 1.483 million bpd in February, 1.564 million bpd in March, 1.663 million bpd in April, 1.701 million bpd in May and 1.735 million bpd in June.

Despite July’s decline, output remained 211,000 bpd, or 14.5 per cent, above January’s level, indicating that the broader recovery in production has not been completely reversed.

Terminal-level data showed that the Forcados stream recorded the highest average production during the month at 322,340 bpd, followed by Bonny Terminal at 303,720 bpd and Qua Iboe Terminal at 158,020 bpd.

Escravos Oil Terminal produced an average of 131,410 bpd, while the Bonga stream recorded 100,230 bpd.

The latest figures nevertheless underline the vulnerability of Nigeria’s oil revenue outlook to operational disruptions at major producing assets. Every sustained decline in crude output reduces the volume available for export and domestic refining while limiting potential foreign exchange inflows and government revenue.

The development also highlights the importance of restoring ageing infrastructure, improving asset reliability and attracting fresh investment into the upstream sector if Nigeria is to sustain production above its OPEC quota.

The Federal Government and NUPRC have prioritised higher crude production as a key pillar of efforts to strengthen public revenue, increase foreign exchange earnings and restore investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil industry.