Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold rise in oil product exports

Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have increased sevenfold since 2023, driven largely by rising production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the United States Energy Information Administration has reported.

The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.

According to the agency, the increase has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the international petroleum products market, particularly as supply disruptions in other producing regions created opportunities for alternative sources.

The EIA attributed much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in January 2024.

Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa cited by the agency showed that exports accounted for about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter of 2026. This compared with an average of 46,000 bpd exported annually in 2023.

The EIA said the refinery’s rising output had significantly changed Nigeria’s petroleum products market by reducing dependence on imports, increasing domestic availability and creating additional volumes for export.

“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the agency said.

Before the Dangote refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products for domestic and international markets.

The EIA said petroleum product shipments increased substantially after the Dangote refinery commenced operations and received another boost following maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026.

The refinery’s crude distillation capacity subsequently increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, enabling it to produce and supply larger volumes of refined petroleum products.

The EIA also linked the rise in shipments to increased demand for refined products following supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted international buyers to seek alternative sources.

Domestic distribution has also expanded significantly, with intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments reaching 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026.

This represented a sharp increase from 81,000 bpd recorded in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023, highlighting the growing role of the Dangote refinery in supplying petroleum products across different parts of Nigeria.

At the same time, Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products has declined.

The country imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, but seaborne imports fell to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.

Nigeria’s petroleum products have also gained greater access to international markets.

Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 15,000 bpd in 2023.

The development underscores the growing importance of the Dangote refinery to Nigeria’s energy security, while strengthening the country’s capacity to supply refined petroleum products to domestic, regional and international markets.

Meanwhile, the refinery has announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028.

The additional capacity would be added to its existing capacity of about 700,000 bpd, potentially taking the refinery’s total capacity to approximately 1.4 million bpd.

The refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, said long-lead equipment had already been procured, while construction contracts were being awarded for the expansion project.

If completed as planned, the expansion would further increase Nigeria’s refining capacity and could strengthen the country’s position as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.