Petrol imports jump 989% to N952bn as domestic supply falters

Nigeria’s petrol import bill surged almost 11-fold to N952.15 billion in the second quarter of 2026, exposing continued dependence on imported fuel despite the expansion of domestic refining capacity and raising fresh questions about the sustainability of the country’s drive to reduce petrol imports.

The latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade data showed that spending on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) jumped 989.4 per cent from N87.40 billion in the first quarter to N952.15 billion in Q2.

Petrol became Nigeria’s largest imported commodity during the quarter, accounting for 6.6 per cent of total imports worth N14.42 trillion. The bill was, however, 66.4 per cent lower than the N2.83 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, indicating that domestic refining is still reducing import expenditure over the longer term.

The sharp quarterly increase therefore represents a significant reversal from the extremely low import bill recorded in Q1 rather than a return to the import levels seen before the expansion of local refining.

The latest NBS figures also show the changing structure of Nigeria’s fuel market. While domestic refineries are increasingly supplying the country, imported petrol remains necessary to close supply gaps created by variations in refinery output, crude availability and domestic demand.

That vulnerability became more apparent after the second quarter.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that imported petrol rose further to 19.7 million litres per day in July, up 9 per cent from 18.1 million litres per day in June.

At the same time, domestic PMS supply fell 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day from 32.5 million litres in June. Combined petrol receipts consequently declined 10 per cent to 45.5 million litres per day.

July’s figures are particularly important because they show that higher installed refining capacity does not automatically translate into uninterrupted domestic petrol supply.

Crude receipts to domestic refineries also fell 8 per cent to 585,000 barrels per day in July from 632,000 bpd in June, highlighting the continuing importance of reliable crude supply to local refining operations.

The NMDPRA data shows how quickly the balance can change. In January, petrol imports averaged 24.8 million litres per day, but dropped to 3 million litres in February as domestic refining gained momentum. Imports rose to 5.9 million litres in March, fell to 3.7 million litres in April and returned to 5.9 million litres in May.

Domestic refinery supply, meanwhile, rose from 40.1 million litres per day in January to 41.5 million litres in May, before falling sharply in the following months.

In May, domestic refineries supplied about 41.5 million litres per day, accounting for nearly 88 per cent of total petrol supply, while imports contributed 5.9 million litres.

The performance of the Dangote refinery has been central to this transition, with the facility supplying 41.5 million litres of PMS daily to the domestic market in May. Yet its output and the broader domestic refining system remain exposed to crude availability and operational constraints.

The latest figures also carry implications for Nigeria’s trade balance and foreign-exchange market. Every rise in petrol imports represents additional foreign-exchange demand, while greater domestic refining can reduce the amount of dollars required to meet local fuel consumption.

That relationship is especially important as Nigeria seeks to strengthen its external position. The country recorded a N12.60 trillion merchandise trade surplus in Q2 2026, while external reserves have climbed above $54 billion.

Reducing petrol imports could therefore reinforce the improvement in the external sector by lowering the foreign exchange required for refined petroleum products.

But the July supply data suggests the transition remains incomplete.

NMDPRA reported that petrol consumption fell 25 per cent to 35.7 million litres per day in July, from 47.4 million litres in June. Because consumption declined faster than supply, petrol stock sufficiency actually improved to 22.4 days from 19.7 days.

The central economic issue is consequently shifting from whether Nigeria can refine more petrol to whether domestic refining can provide consistent and commercially competitive supply.

For consumers, import dependence remains relevant to petrol prices because international product costs, exchange rates, freight and local supply conditions all influence the downstream market.

For government, sustained local refining offers the prospect of lower pressure on foreign exchange and a stronger trade balance. For investors, however, the key question is whether the current refinery expansion can translate into reliable output and progressively displace imported products.

Nigeria’s N952.15 billion Q2 petrol import bill therefore represents both progress and a warning. It is dramatically below last year’s level, showing that local refining is changing the structure of the fuel market, but the 989 per cent quarterly rebound and July’s renewed rise in imports demonstrate that Nigeria has not yet achieved energy self-sufficiency in petrol.

The ultimate test will be whether domestic refineries can maintain sufficient output, secure adequate crude and consistently meet national demand, reducing not just the value of petrol imports, but Nigeria’s underlying dependence on them.